Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 34.393951 37.208354 40.274502 43.887049 48.058706 52.764411 58.531657
2025-04-06 29.915847 33.601345 37.880606 43.299445 50.104647 58.552750 70.153196
2025-04-13 26.780582 30.749246 35.536521 41.878423 50.294605 61.464085 78.165488
2025-04-20 25.622426 30.028027 35.537457 43.164656 53.869619 69.124551 94.256134
2025-04-27 24.625460 29.350769 35.440798 44.197667 57.118958 76.802863 112.545437
2025-05-04 23.672151 28.612258 35.142252 44.843476 59.810189 84.070389 132.605006
2025-05-11 22.540857 27.531857 34.256495 44.501885 60.876536 88.813329 149.669417
2025-05-18 21.484529 26.470281 33.295886 43.919849 61.428192 92.703186 166.569564
2025-05-25 20.461804 25.386517 32.216084 43.034167 61.325083 95.314945 181.705248
2025-06-01 19.541379 24.391168 31.192707 42.133840 61.061741 97.534722 197.035707
2025-06-08 18.630298 23.361898 30.055368 40.952806 60.149616 98.240785 208.560222
2025-06-15 18.447528 23.356096 30.426541 42.234097 63.862828 109.674112 262.710653
2025-06-22 17.831840 22.718430 29.841178 41.939181 64.697473 115.178462 303.448696
2025-06-29 17.197104 22.026267 29.136705 41.391046 64.986550 119.548629 346.019335
2025-07-06 16.434576 21.111575 28.036726 40.069625 63.547031 119.163184 365.737867
2025-07-13 16.293196 21.109877 28.359980 41.265808 67.469701 134.396866 506.741822
2025-07-20 16.106334 21.027561 28.545062 42.225326 71.057253 150.361669 725.381150
2025-07-27 15.856803 20.835992 28.538247 42.824664 73.945352 165.649350 1062.472736
2025-08-03 15.446912 20.379401 28.069786 42.507704 74.636345 173.790433 1409.427547
2025-08-10 15.020811 19.881457 27.508066 41.967376 74.712596 179.800455 1848.671030
2025-08-17 14.567726 19.326015 26.825750 41.144529 73.984453 182.465853 2306.361928
2025-08-24 14.136319 18.791282 26.157160 40.307290 73.126398 184.404268 2896.115414
2025-08-31 13.679666 18.204045 25.378663 39.207798 71.480455 182.505642 3287.414313